50-Year Panhandle Water Plan
Posits Shortages, Surpluses

AMARILLO — Over the next 50 years, according to a computer ground water model, the western Texas Panhandle may run short of water while the eastern Panhandle should have an abundance, though there may be individual spots with surpluses or shortages as the century progresses.

"I've always thought water was kind of like money," says State Rep. Warren Chisum of Pampa. "It doesn't matter unless you don't have any."

If the Panhandle runs out of water, it will be very, very important to the people who are there, he says.

More than 150 people crowded into the auditorium of the Texas A&M Regional Research and Extension Center in Amarillo this month to hear the results of two years worth of work by 27 members of the Panhandle Water Planning Group.

Senate Bill 1 mandated the regional water plan during the 75th Texas Legislature following the 1996 statewide drouth. That bill, signed into law by Gov. George W. Bush, requires each of 16 areas in the state to study water needs and availability for the next 50 years and produce a water plan for their region. The regional water plans will be used to produce a state water plan. The legislature dictated that because the different regions of the state and their water needs varied so dramatically, the planning would be on a regional basis.

"During that period of drouth in 1996, many entities, mainly in the southern parts of the state, faced a very severe threat to their water supplies, their ability to deliver the water they needed primarily for municipal purposes," says Jarrett Atkinson of the Panhandle Regional Planning Commission.

That's one of the problems with Senate Bill 1, Atkinson says. It is primarily targeted at municipal purposes. The Texas Panhandle, which is widely rural, has other needs.

"The key element is that it is an opportunity to plan on a regional basis rather than to plan on a statewide basis," Atkinson says. "It is also an opportunity for those who are affected most to do the work in their area."

While there are certain things, such as water availability and water demand over the next 50 years, that each water plan across the state must address, there are other things that they may address such as identifying ecologically unique streams and rivers and unique reservoir sites.

The Panhandle Water Planning Group chose not to address the identification of unique streams, rivers or reservoir sites because there is a lack of information on what the impact would be if such action were taken.

Atkinson emphasizes that the water planning groups are advisory in nature. They do not have the authority to change state water law, water rights or contracts.

"In fact," Atkinson says, "this planning group is obligated to honor and protect existing water rights and existing contracts."

No implementation authority is assigned to the regional water groups, and they do not replace local ground water districts.

Projected water use for this area in the year 2000 is 1,718,402 acre-feet or 559,943,010,102 gallons of water.

"While this is an arid region," Atkinson says, "we do use and consume a substantial amount of water."

C.E. Williams, chairman of the water planning group, says of the 128 identified water users in the 21-county region of the Panhandle, the water planning group identified 27 that may face water shortages over the next half century. Some of those 28 entities have already taken steps to address those needs.

Wheeler County is expected to fall short by 22 acre-feet by the year 2010. Dalhart, by contrast, is expected to fall short by 1500 acre-feet the same year. Perryton is also expected to fall short by 1500 acre-feet that year, but has made provisions to acquire more water that will be available by then.

Skellytown is expected to run short some 60 acre-feet by the year 2020. McLean is projected to run short 246 acre-feet of water by then. Canadian is expected to run short about 200 acre-feet of water.

By 2040, Groom may run short by 120 acre-feet of water. Panhandle could run short by 900 acre-feet of water. White Deer is projected to be short by 280 acre-feet, and Shamrock is expected to be short by 252 acre-feet.

About 90 percent of the underground water comes from the Ogallala Aquifer, a massive underground water formation that stretches from the South Plains of Texas north into the Dakotas.

The planning group says the Ogallala is a finite resource. Its recharge rate is relatively low.

Because of this, the planning group adopted a policy that 50 percent of the ground water in storage in 1998, the last base year data, will need to be left at the end of the 50-year horizon.

Armstrong County, Atkinson says, is projected to use slightly more than 30 percent of the stored water during the next 50 years. That means they are about 18 percent below their 50 percent goal.

"To put it another way," Atkinson says, "there's about 62 percent of the water left in that county at the end of the projected period."

Hansford County is expected to use about 48 percent of the water available, still under the 50 percent goal.

There are, however, six counties that exceed their 50 percent goals.

Dallam County is expected to use 80 percent of the water available to that county from the Ogallala Aquifer. Moore County is expected to use 70 percent of the stored water available to it. Potter County is projected to use 75 percent of the water available to it. Randall County is expected to use 60 percent of their stored water, and Sherman County is projected to use about 58 percent of their available water.

By contrast, Gray, Roberts and Wheeler counties are projected to use only about 35 percent of the stored ground water available to them over the next 50 years.

One of the reasons for projected shortages in western Panhandle counties over the next 50 years is increased irrigation for crops. That's also one of the reasons for an abundance of water in Roberts County. There is little cultivation and irrigation.

Irrigation, according to the water-planning group, will account for 89 percent of projected water use this year in the Panhandle. Livestock accounts for three percent. Municipal usage accounts for five percent. Power generation, mining (mostly oil and gas drilling) and manufacturing account for the remaining usage.

Surface water accounts for four percent of available water while underground aquifers, or ground water, accounts for 96 percent of the available water in the Texas Panhandle.

The 21 counties covered by the Panhandle water plan are expected to use more than 1.7 million acre-feet of water this year.

For planning purposes, since there was limited data available, the amount of water needed for irrigation was projected to remain flat over the next 50 years.

"This was a conscious decision made by the planning group," Atkinson says, "primarily because accurate data on irrigation use has not been available in the past."

He says it provides a starting point since water planning is to be a dynamic process with plans updated at five-year intervals.

While irrigation use is projected to remain flat, livestock water use is expected to double over the next 50 years.

Municipal use is expected to grow by 24 percent, and industrial use is projected to grow by 34 percent.

The population of the region is expected to grow by 46 percent over the next half century.

"In real numbers, that represents 379,000 people growing to 552,000 by the year 2050," Atkinson says.

By contrast, however, while the population grows by 46 percent, water demand is expected to grow by less than six percent.

Because most of the water usage in the Panhandle involves irrigation, strategies for managing the region's water deal primarily with irrigated agriculture.

The strategies outlined by Atkinson include increased efficiency irrigation systems and techniques, planting shorter season crops, changes to crops that use less water, more efficient tillage methods and precipitation enhancements to increase rainfall.

Atkinson says the planning group wants to explore interbasin and intrabasin transfers and thinks that brush control should be studied as a way of conserving water.

The planning group also offered regulatory, administrative and legislative recommendations.

They include having the Texas Water Development Board evaluate notification requirements for amending regional water plans, reviewing rules governing reuse of treated effluent, have utilities monitor unaccounted water losses, review irrigation development demands, differentiate how surface and ground water are considered, add a Texas Natural Resource and Conservation Commission representative to each planning group, clarify the impact of unique reservoir, stream and river designations, and include potentially feasible reservoir sites in future plans.

Among the specific recommendations the group had was to urge the legislature to evaluate the barriers to using playa lakes in water management.

"There are incredible amounts of regulations on what you can do on any playa lake," Atkinson points out.

He also says the planning group is urging the legislature to clarify authority for reasonable and equitable export fees for ground water districts.

"This is talking about moving water out of a lawfully controlled ground water district to some other area," Atkinson explains.

Water and its availability or lack of availability is key to the future of the Panhandle region and its economy and to all of those who live here, Atkinson says.

The proposed Panhandle Water Plan is available through local county Extension agents and on the Internet at www.panhandlewater.org.

The initial plan is to be submitted to the Texas Water Development Board by Oct. 1. Evaluation and action on public comments will proceed through December.

The final plan will be submitted to the Texas Water Development Board Jan. 5, 2001.