The Computer & The Cowboy

By C.A. Rodenberger, PhD.

Kenneth F. Shilkun, Riley Ranch, near the little community of Eckert, has finally gotten on the Internet and has E-mail. I asked him if I could share some of his comments on his use of computers and he graciously gave me permission. It makes my work easier. I just cut and paste his messages, and I have a column. I have edited what he sent me to reduce it to column size. The following are Ken's comments.

"I have enjoyed reading your column for over a year now and I have managed to get this E-Mail letter to you. It was no easy feat. I live so far out in the country that I have my own tomcat. I use a rotary-party, tin can, string, get out on your back porch and yell telephone system that will go down every time an itchy backed bull starts looking for a post. Somehow, I managed to get connected to the Internet.

"I use my computer a lot. I use two programs from Texas A&M a lot; one is for rainfall statistics (I have 30 years of data for the ranch), and the other is to model forage and rotational grazing. My accountant sold me on Quicken for keeping track of expenses. Computers won't keep your head above water, but they can help you know how deep you are.

"I am in the grass business and cattle are my customers. This my definition of ranching. Rainfall is a big determinant factor in my success. I have no control over it, however, I can measure how much has fallen and when it fell. Then, I can compare how the grasses reacted to this much rain and make an informed decision. A tool that I use is a computer program, "Rainfall Analysis Software(CCB)," developed by Larry White, Texas A&M. July 1990.

"In any given month the chance for rain is from zero to flood. Over time a pattern begins to appear. Here in Gillespie County there are two wet periods, one around May and the other around September. The rainfall program helps me quantify how close to normal the rains are. Let me give you an example of how I use this tool:

"I had planed to sprig in coastal this last January. The year before was drier than normal but the rains that did come fell at just the right times and grass growth was exceptional. I had plenty of hay going into winter. By January, the three-month average rainfall (November through January) was well behind the January three-month average of the last 30 years. The direct measurement of soil moisture was low. I needed to make a decision soon to pay for the sprigging. This is the classic driving by looking in the rearview mirror. I chose not go proceed. By March it was obvious that I made the right decision.

"The rainfall data for this year by March told me that I was in a drouth and I had been in one for about six months. By the middle of April, calf prices were falling. Feedlots were playing chicken with the packers and I was in a drouth. Heavier calves were bringing a little better price. Should I hold my calves longer? Should I cull my herd of older, less productive cows? For the last 30 years it has always rained at least an inch in May. I got my inch the last week in May. I decided to sell my steers and older cows, trade my bull and hold back all the young heifers. I leased some grazing land to put less pressure on the grass. The pattern for this year seemed to match 1974 fairly closely. That year had a dry spring and summer and was wet from September on. We also had a real problem in ‘74 with armyworms.

"I decided not make hay this year. I read somewhere that the best fertilizer a land can have is the footsteps of its owner. I spent a lot of time walking around. I did a lot of computer modeling with another program that I have from A&M called "Grazing Management Stock Adjustments Templates vl.O" by M. M. Kothman and Ray T. Hinnant. My herd size was down to below drouth conditions by August. My cost of production versus income from sales was minus three cents a pound. I feel I got off lucky.

"As I am writing this at the end of October, I am preparing for the first frost. The soil is wet. I have a young healthy herd, lots of fat armyworms and a surpassingly good amount of seed heads on my tall native grasses. Decision time for supplemental feeding is fast approaching. Looking in my rearview mirror, I think I am in the center of the road."

Ken is a man after my own heart because he uses the spreadsheet templates from A&M that I have suggested. If you

aren't using a computer for your decisions, now is a good time to buy.

E-mail address: crodenberg@aol.com.