Corn, Soybean Harvest Figures
From USDA Increase Yet Again

WASHINGTON — A better-than-expected corn and soybean harvest led the U.S. Agriculture Department last week to revise its crop estimates upward yet again.

In a monthly report, the department raised its forecast for the corn crop to 9.27 billion bushels and sharply increased its estimate of the surplus going into next year's harvest. The department cited good weather in the big corn states for the steady climb in the forecast since August.

The forecast for soybeans rose to 2.4 billion bushels, reflecting nearly ideal weather conditions late in the growing season.

The corn crop is the third largest on record and the soybean crop is the second largest. After months of tight supplies, the corn surplus going into next year's harvest should provide a decent cushion.

"That is going to be helpful to livestock and poultry producers and therefore helpful to consumers, and put the brake on meat prices in 1997," said Keith Collins, the Agriculture Department's chief economist.

He said it may be well into next year before the pressure brought by farm prices on retail prices begins to ease.

Tyson Foods Inc. reported Monday it expects marked improvement in its earnings beginning early next year because of more moderate and stable feed prices. High prices had caused earnings to drop 75 percent in the quarter ended Sept. 28.

Good fall weather capped off a season that started miserably. Rain and cool weather delayed plantings of both crops. Harvesting is nearly over.

The corn forecast is up three percent from the October forecast and up 26 percent from 1995. In September, the department was still talking about a crop below nine billion bushels.

Because of the new supply and demand figures, corn prices for the year ending next August 31 should average $2.70 a bushel, down from $3 forecast last month. Prices averaged a record high $3.24 last season and $2.26 the season before.

Still, the average price is close to the desired price for corn under the old farm bill, meaning the price is high enough not to have required a subsidy. Growers are also getting fixed payments under the new farm bill that took effect this year.

The soybean forecast is up two percent from October and 10 percent from last year. Prices should average $6.50 a bushel, down from $6.95 forecast last month.

Prices averaged $6.77 last season and $5.48 the year before.