Beef Imports Forecast To Rise
This Year, Exports To Decline

By Donald Stotts
Oklahoma State University

STILLWATER, Okla. — Imports of beef into the United States are projected to increase this year, while export numbers are likely to decrease, despite a growing Mexican market for U.S. beef.

Poor economic conditions in Asia are projected to lessen U.S. beef exports to that region, and the growth in the Mexican marketplace may not be able to compensate for the decline in Asian purchases, says Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Cooperative Extension livestock marketing specialist.

Livestock Marketing Information Center data shows the United States imported about 8.5 percent, or 14 million pounds, more beef on a carcass weight basis during December 1997 than a year earlier.

Major nations that increased their beef exports to the United States during December included Canada, New Zealand, Argentina and Brazil. Only Australia posted a year-to-year decline in tonnage of beef shipped to the United States in

December.

USDA statistics released last month indicate United States export beef tonnage for December 1997 increased 22 percent from December 1996.

U.S. beef and veal exports during December 1997 totaled 173 million pounds in carcass weight, the largest December figure since the USDA began reporting monthly carcass weight export figures in 1988.

LMIC data shows U.S. beef and veal exports were well above the year-earlier figure to Japan, a 35 percent increase, and Mexico, a 66 percent increase.

U.S. beef exports to Korea for December continued a pattern of decline, posting the smallest monthly shipments since June 1996.

In all, the United States continued to import more tonnage of beef and veal in 1997 than it exported, a total of 2.3 billion pounds in carcass weight.

"This figure marked the largest level since 1994," Peel said. "The trend of greater numbers of beef imports rather than exports likely will continue through 1998, given what is happening economically in nations throughout the Pacific

Rim."

U.S. beef exports increased at an annual rate of 14 percent in 1997, reaching 2.1 billion pounds carcass weight, a new record. Beef exports to Mexico increased dramatically, posting a 45 percent increase in 1997 as compared to 1996.

Peel said U.S. beef and veal exports represented slightly more than eight percent of production in 1997, compared to slightly more than seven percent in 1996 and four percent in 1990.

The tonnage of beef and veal imported into the United States was equivalent to about nine percent of U.S. production. In 1990 and 1996, imported beef and veal

represented about 10 and eight percent of U.S. production, respectively.