Numbers Suggest U.S. Cow Herd
Expansion Has Not Yet Begun

By Donald Stotts
Oklahoma State University

STILLWATER, Okla. — USDA statistics on cow and heifer slaughter indicate that U.S. cow herd expansion probably is not underway at this time.

Heifer slaughter has exhibited greater numbers than year-earlier figures for most of 1997 and the early part of 1998, notes Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Cooperative Extension livestock marketing specialist.

"This indicates that there may not be heifers flowing into the cow herd to replace culled cows," Peel says.

Through the first week of April, federally inspected heifer slaughter for 1998 averaged 1.2 percent more than the large number posted for the same period in 1997.

Conversely, federally inspected weekly cow slaughter has declined from year-earlier levels since February 1997.

Livestock Marketing Information Center data indicates both beef cow and dairy cow slaughter rates have posted year-to-year declines in 1998 as compared to 1997.

"Through the first week of April, cow slaughter averaged 11.2 percent less in 1998 than for the same period in 1997," Peel said. "Federally inspected cow slaughter in early 1998 was down nearly three percent compared to the previous five-year average."

USDA and LMIC statistics show that weekly cow slaughter declined as much as 26.7 percent during March compared to year-earlier figures.

"Cow slaughter is a difficult area by which to judge whether or not expansion or liquidation is underway," Peel said. "Still, by combining cow slaughter with heifer slaughter and other market information, the likelihood is that U.S. cow herd expansion has not happened as yet."