Plantings Forecast Large Corn,
Bean Crops, Says USDA Report

WASHINGTON —(AP)— Now that America's farmers have planted large corn and soybean crops, their chances of turning a profit depend on a centuries-old variable: the weather.

The Agriculture Department projected spring corn plantings Tuesday at 80.8 million acres, a 13-year high, and record soybean plantings of 72.7 million acres. Coupled with huge stocks in storage, big harvests this fall could further dampen prices paid to farmers that are well below five-year averages.

Weather now will determine whether those big crops in the ground will actually be harvested. Drouth or flooding in parts of the country would reduce autumn production and boost prices for farmers who do have a crop.

"If the weather is going to be normal, we're probably going to see new lows," said Steve Freed, analyst with ADM Investor Services in Chicago.

"The next three weeks are going to be very important," added Jason Roose of U.S. Commodities Inc. in West Des Moines, Iowa.

There is a silver lining for livestock and dairy producers, who have a better chance of making money because the costs of feed grains are dramatically lower.

"They have been under the gun for the past few years," said Keith Collins, chief economist at the Agriculture Department.

In its annual estimate of spring-planted crops, USDA said ideal weather through much of the Cornbelt enabled farmers to finish corn planting a week ahead of normal. This year's crop is one percent larger than last year's.

Soybeans, which are planted in rotation with corn, are three percent above the 1997 crop. If realized, USDA officials say that would amount to the most soybeans ever planted and harvested.

Spring wheat, however, is estimated at only 15.2 million acres, compared with more than 19.3 million acres the year before. Wheat prices earlier this month reached a seven-year low and many farmers have turned to other crops offering better profit potential.

Plantings of durum wheat, on the other hand, are up a forecasted 13 percent compared with last year. Most durum, which is used to make pasta, is grown in North Dakota.

Total wheat planted acres for 1998, including the winter varieties harvested in spring and summer, amounts to 65.8 million acres, the lowest in a decade.

Cotton plantings are projected at 12.9 million acres, down six percent from 1997. The decrease was driven by smaller plantings of upland cotton, which is down seven percent from last year at 12.6 million acres.

In a separate report, the Agriculture Department said stocks of corn, soybeans and wheat are all far above last year's levels at this time. This is mostly due to depressed prices, lower exports and high worldwide production.

As of June 1, corn stocks totaled more than three billion bushels, a 22 percent increase from last year. More than 593 million bushels of soybeans were in storage, a 19 percent increase, and wheat in storage was up 63 percent at 723 million bushels.