Cattle Count Down Two Percent
In USDA’s Mid-Year Inventory

WASHINGTON — Talk of premature cow herd rebuilding was all the vogue early last year, but that was scotched by a mid-year inventory showing a two percent decline in numbers, a trend confirmed by the Jan. 1 annual inventory.

Some determined analysts have since begun a tentative resurrection of the rebuilding scenario despite tumbling prices, widespread drouth and large feedlot heifer placements.

Wrong again, it appears.

USDA’s mid-year cattle inventory, released late last week, shows yet another decline in the nation’s cow herd, and what may pan out as the smallest calf crop in almost half a century.

The tally counts 107 million cows and calves as of July 1, down two percent from 109 million at the same time last year, and four percent fewer than the 111.5 million counted July 1, 1996.

The inventory lists all cows and heifers that have calved at 43.3 million head, down two percent from 44 million last year and four percent fewer than the 45 million on hand two years ago.

Beef cows, at 34.1 million, were two percent fewer than a year ago and down four percent for two years. Milk cows, at 9.2 million, were down one percent and two percent, respectively.

All heifers 500 pounds and heavier totaled 16.7 million, down two and three percent. Beef replacement heifers, at five million, were down a whopping six and nine percent, respectively. At 3.6 million, dairy replacement heifers were unchanged from last year and down three percent from two years ago. "Other" heifers, at 8.1 million head, were down one percent from a year ago and unchanged from July 1, 1996.

Steers weighing 500 pounds or more totaled 14.5 million head, down two and four percent. Bulls of that weight tallied 2.2 million head, down four and eight percent. Calves under 500 pounds, at 30.3 million, were down two percent and four percent.

USDA estimates the 1998 calf crop will total 37.9 million head, down two percent from last year and five percent from 1996. If correct, it would be the smallest calf crop since 1951. Calves born during the first half of the year are estimated at 27.9 million head, down two and five percent.