Latest Estimate Shows Grain,
Soybean Harvest Still Higher

WASHINGTON —(AP)— Farm prices are likely to fall even further as harvest time approaches because of forecasts for large corn, soybean and wheat crops amid stagnant exports, the Agriculture Department reported Friday.

The latest report is likely to influence debate in Congress over how much aid to provide farmers, who no longer have a government safety net to ease them through price downturns.

The worst price slide is expected in soybeans, which many farmers planted as an alternative this year because they offered better income potential than other crops.

The Agriculture Department predicts that this year's record soybean harvest of 2.91 billion bushels, coupled with flat demand, will drop prices as low as $4.65 a bushel, compared with $6.45 last year. The new figure represents a 35-cent decrease from the August estimate and would be the lowest soybean price since 1987.

Corn production, meanwhile, is forecast at 9.74 billion bushels, which would be the second-largest crop on record and is two percent above the August prediction.

Although corn exports have improved slightly, prices are forecast down 15 cents a bushel from last month to as low as $1.80 a bushel. That compares with $2.45 last year.

As for wheat nationally, record per-acre yields of 43.3 bushels an acre raised the overall forecast to 2.56 billion bushels, up two percent from last year even though farmers planted less acreage this year.

Leading the way is durum wheat, used mainly to make pasta and grown mostly in North Dakota, which is forecast up 53 percent from last year at 132 million bushels. It would be the largest durum crop since 1982.

But like the other crops, this bounty combined with stagnant exports means prices as low as $2.50 a bushel, down almost a dollar from last year.

Bad weather, led by the severe drouth in Texas, continued to take its toll on the cotton crop, which is estimated down another five percent from last month at 13.6 million bales. That figure is 28 percent lower than 1997; the Texas crop alone is off more than 2.1 million bales.

The Agriculture Department does not publish projected cotton prices, but imports are expected to increase by 300,000 bales over last year to make up for the low U.S. crop.

Aside from cotton, the big U.S. crops are one factor in the deep price drop afflicting many American farmers. The large supply comes amid sharp export reductions, particularly to financially troubled Asia.