Forecast Of Dry Winter Adds
To Drouth’s Potential Impact

LUBBOCK — Last year, farmers and ranchers in some — but by no means all — parts of Texas had a winter that bordered on miraculous.

In some areas, more than 20 inches of rain fell, soaking the ground for what could have been the precursor to a great summer for growing crops and hay.

But apparently, El Niño giveth and La Niña taketh away.

El Niño's sister, La Niña, is expected to starve the land of significant rainfall into the winter and prolong the devastating drouth of 1998 until next spring.

"The way it looks might suggest it would be warmer and drier this winter and into early next spring," said Larry Vannozi, chief meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Amarillo. "This is based on historical cases of this phenomenon. This is what has happened before."

Both phenomena are linked to changes in global weather patterns.

El Niño is when a large mass of warm water across the equator begins to pile up against the west coast of South America. La Niña is essentially the opposite — a cooling of the Pacific's eastern equatorial waters.

The wet winter of 1997 helped provide some groundwater reserves going into the arid summer of 1998. But if La Niña keeps West Texas dry this winter, next year's crops are bound to suffer.

"Just as a wet winter is helpful because the ground water level rises, so too can a dry winter hurt because it doesn't give the ground a chance to restore its water or soften up," said Texas Agricultural Extension Service researcher Craig Anderson. "If it doesn't rain, that will just set up what could be a worse drouth next year."

Meteorologists are quick to note that they don't have a crystal ball, but they say predicting the end of the drouth is actually easier than forecasting the day's weather.

"It usually takes more than one event to break a drouth — a prolonged pattern of rain which is typically easier to see coming. Otherwise, you end up like Del Rio," Vannozzi said, referring the flooding that plagued South Texas in August. "One or two decent rains will not break drouth."

California oceanographer Bill Patzert does provide some hope for Texas ranchers.

He says the latest information from NASA's Topex-Poseidon satellite shows the Pacific Ocean running both hot and cold as the phenomena evolve, meaning they essentially could cancel each other out.

If El Niño were to endure long enough to cancel out La Niña, farmers and ranchers could see the rain they desperately need.

"We have faith in God that things will turn around," said Dale Kitchens, a cotton farmer near Lubbock who lost his entire dryland crop this year. "He is the master of all nature, so we know never to lose hope."

Divine intervention can’t come any too soon for many stockmen.

Near Tulia, cattleman John Van Pelt rummaged through his pocket, pulled out a crisp $100 bill and held it next to one of his scrawny animals.

"I might as well be tying one of these to the tail of every animal I have to sell," Van Pelt said as he looked out over the dusty pens holding dozens of cattle. "That's what I've lost this year. That's what most people are losing this year. This one is putting people out of the business."

After the punishing drouth of 1996, which pushed many ranchers to the brink of bankruptcy or beyond, 1998 was supposed to be the year for them to rebound. That's made the summer's brutal, unrelenting heat even more tragic.

B.R. Carter of Sundown was among those who barely made it two years ago.

"If you had a good bank and a little fortune, you probably made it through 1996," Carter said. "We were able to stick it out even when it looked like we might not be able to for a while."

A wet winter gave Carter hope that his faith would be rewarded with a prosperous summer ranching season. Then temperatures began soaring into the 100s for days at a time.

"Everything just dried up. It looked like a wasteland out here, like a bomb had dropped — like the dead of winter," Carter said. "All the grass died, everything died. That was when you knew we were in big trouble."

Without grass, ranchers found themselves trying to sustain their herds with expensive feed. Most wallets were emptied long before cattle reached their optimum weights.

And now, after months of little rain, ranchers are dealing with the final consequence of the drouth of 1998: cattle that fetch hundreds of dollars less at auctions across the state.

Texas Agricultural Extension Service researchers say this year's cattle losses are projected at $451 million because of premature sales, lower cattle prices and added feed costs.

"Everyone knows somebody who has had to hang up their hat this year," Carter said. "No one will get out untouched."

In South Texas, Elmo Lopez's water well ran dry in June. Shortly thereafter, his first calf died, yelping and moaning, from heat exhaustion.

In the days that followed, Lopez lost eight head of cattle and three more calves.

His losses, along with the desert-like terrain of his ranch near Laredo, speak volumes about the trials he has endured this year.

"It's hard to watch an animal die like that," Lopez said. "You want to be able to sell them but you never want to watch them die. This heat has been incredible."

Lopez has also had to take cattle to auction early this year.

"When you can't feed them, you don't really have a choice," he said. "Some money is better than no money, and no money is what I get if they starve."

Larry Boleman, an Extension, said 20 percent to 30 percent of ranchers have followed suit and sold their entire herds.

"Most others have reduced down to 50 percent; if they haven't they should have," he added.

"This year is nothing short of a disaster and we may not see the final pricetag until this fall," Boleman said. "We need rain and we need the drouth to break, or a lot of small ranch owners may be forced out."

While Carter acknowledges that his profession isn't easy, he just smiles at the notion that recent misfortunes could drive him from the cattle business.

"We're in this until the end," Carter said. "It's a way of life for me and I'm not into giving up. There's always hope for next year. We just have to hold on."