Expected Arrival Of La Niña
Sparks Talk Of More Drouth

HARLINGEN, Texas —(AP)— Just when the 1998 drouth seems over for most of the state, a weather phenomenon that's right around the corner has agriculture watchers watching the weather.

El Niño, the periodic warming of waters in the eastern Pacific off the coast of Peru, caused severe rains around the globe and was blamed for a number of rain-fueled events, including floods in Asia that killed thousands.

Now El Niño's opposite, La Niña, a cooling of the Pacific's eastern equatorial waters cold water, will be this winter's weather pattern, promising drier times for Texas.

That, of course, has brought up talk of the dreaded D-word.

"The weather is the one phenomenon out there that we literally have no control over, and since 1996 when the drouth devastated this state and the reoccurrence this year, you bet we're concerned about La Niña," said Texas Agriculture Commissioner Rick Perry.

Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico and Arizona are among the states expected to experience drouth conditions during La Niña.

During La Niña, while southern states experience warm and dry weather, other parts of North America get cooler conditions. Around the world, most places that experienced drouth during El Niño will get more rain and places hit with heavy rain will probably dry out.

"La Niña is basically the complete opposite of what El Niño was doing," explained Roland Nunez, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Fort Worth.

(Does that mean it will finally rain in West Texas? Yeah, right after it snows in Cairo — Ed.)

In the last 50 years, there have been seven examples of La Niña years, Nunez said. The weather pattern is expected to bring with it below normal rainfall and mild temperatures, slightly above average.

La Niña's effects will take hold by the end of October or early November, forecasters predict. It'll be in full swing in winter and should let go by the end of spring. By May, above normal precipitation should return.

In Texas, the statewide drouths of 1996 and 1998 have meant a combined $5 billion economic loss. That's more economic damage than the devastating 1950s drouth, Perry said.

Although this year's drouth has apparently been broken throughout most of the state, the Rio Grande Valley hasn't seen drouth relief in five years.

Meteorologists have been studying patterns from previous La Niña years to get an idea of what to expect. If those years are any indication, there probably won't be too many major cold outbreaks.

North Texas, for example, might see just a few days with temperatures in the teens, with warmer parts of the state, like South Texas, getting just a few days in the 20s, Nunez said.

Nunez said cold spells during the years of La Niña forecasters studied "weren't terribly cold or extensive."

Still, the potential effects for agriculture could range "anywhere from minor damage to cataclysmic damage," Perry said.

"My concern with another drouth is the number of agriculture producers that would most likely go out of business," he added.

Citing the uncertainty of what La Niña will bring, Perry said he had no estimates as to how much more in losses La Niña could mean for Texas.

Nunez said crops already planted during winter could suffer and La Niña would probably affect spring planting choices.

"A slightly warmer winter would hurt crops that need a good chill," he said. "It may cause a problem for spring planting, wouldn't get normal precipitation for spring planting.

"Any time you see weather fluctuations like this your agriculture field is going to be mostly affected, but in the long run it affects everybody."

Also, if the temperatures don't stay below freezing long enough, there's a possibility of some insects sticking around longer than they should.

Perry said that in case of a recurrence of a statewide drouth, Texas will be applying lessons learned during the 1996 drouth.

That means notifying agencies that provide aid for natural disasters as soon as possible.

Perry also said he anticipates implementing the same drouth plan put into place during this year's drouth. A hay hotline also is among drouth programs that the state has provided.

Still, Perry's hoping La Niña won't make much difference and that forecasters are off the mark in predicting another Texas dry spell.

"Hopefully, they'll be wrong," Perry said. "Hopefully, it will be a model that doesn't pan out."