Analyst Says The More Consumer
Changes, More She Is The Same

Consumers, says Harry Balzar, are a study in contrasts. While changes in individual consumer behavior affect the beef business in many ways, consumers really change very little overall, he told cattle feeders at the recent 1998 TCFA Annual Convention in Fort Worth.

That's because we all live in "life stages," and even though some trends have been pervasive throughout all aspects of a consumer's life — the desire for more convenience chief among them — where you are in life will largely dictate your buying and eating habits.

Balzar, vice president of the NPD Group's Consumer Consulting Service, gave cattle feeders an example of how this works. He has a diary from a housewife named Mrs. Barker who recorded her meals for a week in 1955. "She prepared all 21 of those meals in her home in 1955. She took 29 minutes to prepare each meal, and coffee was her top beverage."

To find out how she changed, she was surveyed again in 1997.

"Out of 21 meals, only 11 were made at home. The only meal we could count on her eating at home was breakfast. She spends nine minutes preparing a meal, and now soft drinks are her top beverage."

Then, to compare, they surveyed her daughter.

"Out of 21 possible meals, she made 18 in her home. She spent 20 minutes preparing a meal, and coffee was her top beverage. Her daughter looked more like her mother in 1955 than she looked like her mother today.

"As an individual, Mrs. Barker changed, and you will change, too. But as you leave your life stage, somebody else will come in and take your place."

So, for the beef industry to position itself as a consumer's food of choice, an understanding of demographics and population changes is necessary. That's because, to meet consumer expectations, cattlemen need to know what is important to consumers at each life stage.

Groups that have grown in numbers in the last 10 years are babies and children under five, school age children, preteens, older families and empty nesters. There are fewer young adults out on their own, which means there will be fewer moms and dads until the preteens and school age children move into that life stage.

"The groups that will be growing are older families and empty nesters," he said. "Think empty nesters will behave differently than families? Will they eat differently?" he asked.

The answer is, like the woman surveyed in 1955 and again in 1997, they won't prepare many meals.

"They still want to eat at home, but they don't want to cook. They want somebody else to prepare their meals."

Which brings up the main driver in consumer behavior today — time.

"What really causes change is time," Balzar said, adding that the main question consumers have of the food industry is, "Can you save me time?"

"The number of meals made in the home last year was the lowest we've ever seen," he continued, "and the number of meals prepared in a restaurant is at an all-time high."

But only recently has the trend been weighted toward consumers eating those meals at the restaurant.

"We've actually decreased going out to eat and actually sitting down to eat at the restaurant," he explained. "It's only in the last couple of years with good economic conditions and fewer kids that we're going out to eat again. Growth of the restaurant industry has been supported entirely by takeout. And where has this takeout been going? Home."

Another trend that accompanies an older population is health. But it might surprise cattlemen to learn the direction the health trend is taking.

"The number of people who say they are concerned about fat in food, cholesterol in food, sugar, preservatives, and caffeine are declining. In fact, 1990 was probably the peak year as far as eating 'less harmful' foods in this country."

The same holds true for total calories. "The number of people who say they're conscious of the number of calories in the meals they serve is the lowest ever at 26 percent of the population."

Now, he said, the health trend is to include what are perceived as "healthy" foods in the diet, rather than avoid foods that are perceived as "unhealthy." The question today's consumers are asking is, "What's in your food that's good for me?"

However, in the long run, Balzar told cattle feeders that if they want to bet where the long-term changes in consumer eating patterns will be, it's in those things that save time.

"Figure out ways to make it easy to prepare food in the home," he urged. "When you talk about consumer use of food, the person you're really talking to is mom. Mom is the primary meal preparer in this country, and she always has been."

But females are cooking less. Five years ago, 71 percent to 72 percent of females prepared at least one meal in the home. Today, it's 68 percent.

"So what you've got to think about is how to make the woman's life easier."

And that doesn't mean coming up with some exotic new food. Balzar said the top foods in 1990 eaten at home as the entree at lunch or dinner were ham, peanut butter and jelly, hot dogs, pizza, cheese sandwich, hamburgers, baked chicken, macaroni and cheese, and bologna sandwiches.

Today, he said, it's the same list, it's just reordered itself. "Anybody want to guess what we'll be eating 10 years from now, in 2008? It will be the same list. The difference will be how it's delivered to us, how it's packaged, how it's priced."