Grain Export Regrowth
Predicted To Be Slow

KEARNEY, Neb. —(AP)— U.S. corn exports will rebound in the next year, but it will not be nearly enough to match the tons shipped during the mid-1990s, said Ken Hobbie, president and chief executive officer of the U.S. Grains Council.

Hobbie predicts sales of about 42.5 million metric tons of corn in 1998-99, which would be four million metric tons or 160 million bushels more than last year, when record production by U.S. competitors and collapsing Asian markets took a big bite out of exports.

He said U.S. corn producers exported 58 million metric tons of corn in 1994-95, the year China became a major buyer. The total was 52.6 million metric tons in 1995-96 and 46.5 million in 1996-97.

It could be another year or two before customers in Asia see a significant recovery in their economies and purchasing power.

``These economies are just now starting to show signs of picking up again,'' Hobbie said, which reflects some positive effects from U.S. government-sponsored credits and International Monetary Fund support to help stabilize markets in places like Indonesia and Malaysia.

Whenever there is a strengthened demand, there should be a positive impact on price.

But Hobbie said problems for the corn industry the past year were not just a matter of having fewer foreign markets. There also was an excess of production internationally, with Argentina and China each showing record corn production.

Low prices are playing a part in projections that Argentine farmers will grow three million metric tons less corn this year.

Hobbie believes there still is good market growth potential in higher-valued products like specialty grains. The United States now is the only supplier of those grains, such as high-oil corn valued as livestock feed, and work continues to generate interest among more customers.

``It's encouraging to see what has happened in terms of the contracting going on,'' Hobbie said, and state corn checkoff boards and the Grains Council continue to invest money in expanding those markets.

``There will be nothing big or shocking,'' he said about expectations for 1999 corn markets. Any big changes affecting the market would have to come from Mother Nature in the form of major crop losses due to weather or low production in countries that would have to rely on more imports.

``We don't have a significant change coming in any of the markets this year.''