CHARLOTTE, North Carolina — For the first time in 20 years, the downward shift in demand for beef is showing signs of slowing.

So said Dr. Wayne Purcell, an ag economist at Virginia Tech. Speaking at the recent Cattle Industry Annual Convention and Trade Show here, Purcell attributed the slowing of decline in part to programs funded with beef checkoff dollars and to consumers' willingness to pay for products that meet their expectations for convenience, consistency and quality.

"It's the most encouraging thing I've seen in the past 20 years," said Purcell. "Some of the programs the beef industry is putting forth are starting to work, as well as the efforts of private firms which are putting out more convenient pre-cooked products.

"The modern consumer will pay for quality, consistency and convenience, and they will pay the kinds of prices that will make producers a profit for a change," he said.

Purcell's presentation was based on research completed in January with the Beef Demand Study Group. The study worked with recognized researchers, including Purcell, to identify the primary "drivers" of beef demand. The following drivers were identified: food safety; palatability; health and nutrition; consumer friendly products (convenience); cost efficiencies; and value enhancement.

Beef demand has fallen steadily since the late 1970s but has slowed during the 1990s. Purcell's message was good news for the beef industry, but it included a cautionary note:

"The industry needs to be careful about relaxing its vigil. Demand has plummeted in dramatic fashion since about 1980, and we have a long way to get back to a profitable and growing industry," he said.

"Consumers have moved to an on-the-go-lifestyle where convenient meal preparation is important. They worry about fat and cholesterol in their diets. They want high quality and they increasingly demand consistent quality," he said.

"In beef, the need to move the fresh beef product offering toward the needs and preferences of the modern consumer is readily apparent."

The Beef Demand Study Group also identified several important consumer demographics which affect buying preferences. Demographics which have impacted beef demand during the last 20 years include age; household income; household size; education; employment; and rural versus urban location.

The prolonged decrease in demand for fresh beef appears to be associated largely with preference issues, not with the impact of changing relative prices of substitutes or changing consumer incomes, Purcell said.

(That is a positive finding, at least relative to poultry, against which beef cannot realistically compete price-wise. It also makes sense, given the fact that potentially cheap poultry is just as costly as beef when put up in the "value-added" forms in which it currently sells most readily: pre-breaded chicken strips, "buffalo wings," and the like. Does anyone still see whole fryers anymore? Can today's kitchen-phobic consumer even cut one up? — Ed.)

In some cases, changes in demographic factors have directly impacted many of the product drivers. While the industry cannot directly affect these demographic factors, appropriate responses need to be developed to stabilize demand, according to the Beef Demand Study Group.

The Study Group believes that there will be no demand for beef unless consumers perceive that it is safe. They also believe that consumers' concerns over health and nutrition continue to have a substantial negative impact on beef demand and should be addressed by the industry.

All demand drivers, they noted, must be addressed to halt the declining demand for beef. Focusing on one area alone will not accomplish the task.

"The major need is for change, investments, and programs to move toward a consumer-friendly product offering," Purcell said. "If these things are not done, beef will continue to lose market share with a major loss in 1999 now largely predetermined. The loss of market share — not demand — will come from decreased cyclical beef supplies and increased supplies of competing meats."