Forecasters Predict Continued
Warm, Dry Weather Across Texas

As Thanksgiving nears, ranchers and hands across the Great Plains are still in shirtsleeves — and probably will have little need for either coats or slickers for a while.

Weather forecasters don't predict much relief from the warm, dry systems that are dominating the central portion of the nation. With La Niña cooling eastern Pacific waters, summertime weather patterns predominate over the Southwest and Plains states. High pressure systems deflect potentially rain-producing cold fronts.

The National Weather Service is predicting unseasonably warm and dry weather with only brief stretches of cold weather. This month is shaping up to become the warmest November on record for Texas.

Fort Worth reports an average daily temperature so far this month of 63.6 degrees. That's 7.4 degrees above normal and almost half a degree higher than the record average temperature of 63.2 set in 1909.

Dallas reports rainfall about 10 inches below normal after a dry September and October, normally the area's two wettest months.

Amarillo, Lubbock and Wichita Falls have had above average rainfall for the year, but report increasingly dry conditions over the last several months.

Waco and San Antonio are about 11 inches below their normal rainfall; Houston is 16 inches behind.

The state as a whole reported below normal moisture in September and October.

The National Weather Service reports that seven of the state's 10 climate regions are experiencing drouth conditions. Only the High Plains, South Texas and the Lower Rio Grande Valley have escaped so far, and they are reporting a lack of recent rains.

Texas Emergency Management officials say that if the trend continues, the state could again be facing drouths like the ones experienced in 1996 and 1998.

The entire state was declared a federal disaster area following a 10-month drouth in 1996. The state suffered a five-month drouth in 1998.

(Some parts of the state, of course, are still enjoying the company of the same old drouth they first met about 1993; it's been bent on occasion, but so far remains unbroken. We've harped on this ad nauseum, but it bears repeating yet again, at least until officials get over their I-35 Corridor fixation and recognize that there's a world of Texas west of Benbrook and Bee Caves Road. To West Texans, a couple or three rainless months do not constitute a "drouth," just a dry spell. A "drouth" goes on for years, as this one already has. — Ed.)

Spring and early summer rains helped grain crops, particularly wheat, corn and grain sorghum earlier this year, although heavy rains and hail hurt some of the cotton crop in West Texas and on the South Plains.

The year's grain crop was one of the best on record, but winter wheat and winter forage crops are beginning to suffer now across Texas and north and east from the Plains states to the Ohio River Valley.

Dr. Travis Miller, a small grains specialist at Texas A&M University, says the loss of winter forage crops could have devastating implications.

Dr. Ernie Davis, a Texas A&M agricultural economist, adds that the loss of winter grazing could result in deeper culling of cow herds.

Iowa State University researchers are predicting a drouth for the first half of next year.

Veterinarians are reporting an increase in dust-induced pneumonia in Nebraska and northwest Kansas feedyards. In the Texas Panhandle, feedyard managers say a rain would settle the dust, but there appears to be no appreciable increase in dust-related pneumonia cases.

That area has also been recording temperatures in the 80s during the day and down into the 20s at night.

Nebraska has had no measurable precipitation since August, and the Texas Panhandle has not had any significant moisture since Sept. 16, when a one and a half inch rain fell.

Although the Panhandle recorded one freeze, a low of 28 degrees on Nov. 2, most of November has been pushing record high temperatures. The record for the month was set in 1980, at 87 degrees. Normal high temperatures this time of year would be about 65 degrees.

The six to 10-day outlook calls for continued warmer than normal temperatures from the Texas Panhandle on up into the central portion of the country with little or no precipitation.

"A good hard freeze and a little moisture would make everybody feel better," says Danny Nusser, Gray County Extension agent. "We could use a good wet snow."

And it's not just agriculture that is suffering. An increasing number of municipal reservoirs are reporting low levels.

The Dallas Morning News reports that reservoirs in Coke and Tom Green counties are at less than 15 percent of capacity. Reservoirs in the Trans-Pecos area are at 28 percent of capacity. Lakes in the Trinity River basin are at 75 percent capacity.

Minnesota has reported a growing problem with grass fires due to dry conditions and high winds.

South Dakota has postponed deer season a month because of dry conditions and a fear that hunters' campfires could burn out of control, a fear shared by the Texas Forest Service in the Lone Star State.

The Texas Forest Service is bracing for wildfires throughout the state. Outdoor burning bans have been imposed in 110 counties.